Eurovision 2015 – Part 4

The first round is just a week away. The performance order in semi-finals is set, the stage is built, rehearsals are underway… There’s only one question left to answer. Why does the United Kingdom keep sending such rubbish acts? To read the comments from the UK, it’s either that complaint or a snobbish comment that the entire competition is utterly beneath them.

The real question, of course, is who will win….

Wiwibloggs boasts that it is “the world’s most-read independent web site devoted to Eurovision”. Given that it’s all they cover, and do it professionally, it’s easy to agree with that. Twenty-nine jurors from around the world have reviewed all but two of the songs (as of 5/13/15, they are missing only Armenia’s “Face the Shadow” by Genealogy and Spain’s “Amanecer” by Edurne). Each judge gives the song a score from 0 to 10, and they are then averaged. Here’s their Top 10 (with the scores):

1. Estonia: Elina & Stig – “Goodbye to Yesterday” (8.50)
2. Sweden: Måns Zelmerlöw – “Heroes” (8.44)
3. Norway: Mørland & Debrah Scarlett – “A Monster Like Me” (8.37)
4. Belgium: Loïc Nottet – “Rhythm Inside” (8.31)
5. Azerbaijan: Elnur Huseynov – “Hour of the Wolf” (8.26)
6. Slovenia: Maraaya – “Here for You” (8.11)
7. Iceland: María Ólafsdóttir – “Unbroken” (8.09)
8. Albania: Elhaida Dani – “I’m Alive” (8.02)
9. Latvia: Aminata Savadogo – “Love Injected” (7.89)
10. Georgia: Nina Sublatti – “Warrior” (7.67)

Once the official videos are released, hundreds upon hundreds of Eurovision fans post clip videos of their rankings on YouTube. “ESC Marisa” has seemingly watched every single one of them. Using the Eurovision point system (1st place = 12 points, 2nd place = 10 points, 3rd = 8, 4th = 7, 5th = 6, etc.) she’s compiled them into one single ranking. The two numbers in parentheses are the total score and then the number of first place selections:

1. Estonia: Elina & Stig – “Goodbye to Yesterday” (4564, 128)
2. Sweden: Måns Zelmerlöw – “Heroes” (3835, 80)
3. Norway: Mørland & Debrah Scarlett – “A Monster Like Me” (3407, 70)
4. Slovenia: Maraaya – “Here for You” (3311, 63)
5. Spain: Edurne – “Amanecer” (3018, 65)
6. Italy: Il Volo – “Grande Amore” (2839, 64)
7. Albania: Elhaida Dani – “I’m Alive” (2262, 56)
8. Azerbaijan: Elnur Huseynov – “Hour of the Wolf” (1941, 26)
9. Belgium: Loïc Nottet – “Rhythm Inside” (1878, 29)
10. Russia: Polina Gagarina – “A Million Voices” (1774, 21)

Of course, a competition this large and this old attracts its share of betting. Oddsmakers are keeping an eye on things, and here’s what they (in general – the actual odds are too fluid amongst the bookies) feel the songs most likely to win are:

1. Sweden: Måns Zelmerlöw – “Heroes”
2. Italy: Il Volo – “Grande Amore”
3. Australia: Guy Sebastian – “Tonight Again”
4. Estonia: Elina & Stig – “Goodbye to Yesterday”
5. Russia: Polina Gagarina – “A Million Voices”
6. Finland: Pertti Kurikan Nim – “Aina Mun Pitää”
7. Azerbaijan: Elnur Huseynov – “Hour of the Wolf”
8. Norway: Mørland & Debrah Scarlett – “A Monster Like Me”
9. Slovenia: Maraaya – “Here for You”
10. Iceland: María Ólafsdóttir – “Unbroken”

Note that these rankings are as of 5/14/15 – after the first round of rehearsals. Considering that the final voting takes place after a live performance, the rehearsals are very important in predicting a winner.

We’ll find out soon enough. The final round is next Saturday, May 23. Will Eurovision 2016 be in Stockholm, Tallinn, Ljubljana, or even someplace Down Under?

If your favorite song doesn’t win, it’s no big deal. The only thing the winner gets is a trophy, and their country gets to host it next year. And on occasion, the best song doesn’t always win. Now that a year has passed, I think it’s pretty obvious that the best song (and best live performance) was that of The Common Linnets from The Netherlands with “Calm After the Storm”, and that the only reason Conchita Wurst of Austria won with “Rise Like a Phoenix” was because “Look! It’s a Bearded Lady / Guy in Drag!”

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